Week 3 NFL Betting Analysis: A Close Look at the Best Predictions and Bets

Week 2 Review: A Journey Back to Normal

The second week of NFL action saw us recoup from a shaky start with four out of our six bets coming good. The Washington Commanders surprised us by scoring seven field goals but failing to reach the end zone against the Giants. Our bets on Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin seemed well-thought-out, but they didn’t deliver as expected. Lesson learned: we’re stepping back from the Commanders until their offense becomes more dependable. It’s worth noting that offensive performance has generally been on the decline in the first two weeks across the league. Despite this, we hope for a return to the thrilling offensive play we all know and love from the NFL this weekend. Regardless of the outcome, we’ve got you covered. Welcome to our Week 3 “Profitable Predictions.” Let’s delve into the details.

Quarterback Props

Joe Burrow: OVER 1.5 Passing TDs (-140) – A Favorite Bet

This is my top prediction for this week. The Bengals need to regroup following a slow start, a narrative that feels all too familiar. However, they face the Washington Commanders’ porous secondary, which has been unable to prevent even Daniel Jones from scoring multiple TDs. Washington has already conceded six passing scores in just two games, the highest in the NFL this season. With a promising setup for a significant comeback game and the potential return of Tee Higgins, Burrow is expected to cross the end zone multiple times this week. So, I’m backing the OVER.

Sam Darnold: UNDER 21.5 Passing Completions (-110) – A Safe Bet

Sam Darnold’s performance, now free of his past ghosts, has been commendable. However, he hasn’t managed more than 19 completions per game this season, and I don’t expect that to change in Week 3. The Texans have significantly improved their pass defense, registering nine sacks and limiting opposing QBs to a miserly 57.1% completion rate. Given this, and with Kevin O’Connell likely to lean on the run to counter Houston’s potent offense, Darnold’s high flying numbers are set to decrease.

Running Back Props

Rico Dowdle: OVER 1.5 Receptions (-190) – A Potential Surprise

Dowdle’s offensive snaps and total touches increased in Week 2. While he and Ezekiel Elliott split the backfield carries, Dowdle proved to be a more effective receiver. Given the Ravens’ recent defensive lapses and a game projected to be a high-scoring affair, Dowdle’s chances of securing at least three catches are high.

Wide Receiver Props

George Pickens: OVER 49.5 Receiving Yards (even) – A Solid Bet

Despite the challenging coverage from Pat Surtain II in Week 2, Pickens showcased his deep-threat capabilities. He should find the going easier against the Chargers in Week 3. Given his previous performances and the potential for a high-scoring game, Pickens should easily surpass 50 yards.

Jauan Jennings: OVER 44.5 Receiving Yards (EVEN) – A Value Bet

With multiple injuries plaguing the 49ers, Jennings is poised for a significant role. Against a weakened Rams team, Jennings has multiple paths to reach the projected receiving yards.

Demarcus Robinson: OVER 44.5 Receiving Yards (-110) – An Opportunity Bet

Robinson is set to be the Rams’ primary receiver this week. Despite a tough 49ers defense, Robinson’s familiarity with Matthew Stafford and the Rams’ current circumstances should provide him ample opportunities to reach the projected receiving yards.

Ja’Marr Chase: Anytime TD (+110) – A Smart Bet

If we expect Joe Burrow to find the end zone, as we discussed earlier, then it makes sense to back his top receiver, Ja’Marr Chase, to score. Given the Bengals’ struggles on the ground and the weak Commanders defense, a Chase score seems likely.